Bills / Patriots Over 44 3.3% play
Research from recent history shows games played in the cold without wind lead to more overs not unders. In this match up we have two top 10 success rate defenses, and two top 10 success rate offenses, and two teams that know each other. However, these defenses both have faced some of the easiest schedules. The Patriots average opponent SR offense is 18.29, and the Bills are 18.6. Meanwhile the offenses have faced far tougher defenses, but still both have top 5 success rate offenses.
The two defenses even look better, because when they did play top 15 offenses they did so in poor weather, rain, snow, wind, and that is deflating the total a bit here as well giving us value on the over. The only reason this is not a MAX POD is the fact that it is the playoffs, but I expect the Bills to really play agressive early, because they need to play with a lead. In today's NFL teams love going for it on 4th down at mid field, and I think that is also leading to more points that are not being taken into consideration with these totals yet.
