Louisville -1 2.2% play
It seems like everyone is on Air Force tomorrow with 68% of the tickets and 54% of the money, but I haven’t heard a single soul pick Louisville. I think Louisville is the better team they have the better stats against the tougher competition. For example, Air Force has faced an average opponent YPP offense ranking 87th. They have faced an average rushing offense ranking 88th in ypc, and 88th in epa run offense yet their epa run defense ranks 80th. When they faced top 50 rushing attacks they went 1-2, with 2 of those 3 games coming at home, and they never faced a team that was top 50 passing and running like Louisville. This is by far the best offense that Air Force has faced all year, and they feature some edge speed that has given Air Force issues this season and in the past.
Louisville’s ypp differential on the season is +0.8, while Air Force is +0.9, but have faced drastically different schedules with Louisville’s opponent average YPP differential at +0.21, and Air Force’s at -0.36. Troy Calhoun has been pretty good in bowls going 5-5, but most of them have come against the G5, and Louisville’s Scott Saterfeld is a perfect 4-0 in bowl games.
I also like to look at another service academy this bowl season going up against a P5 opponent. Army was better than Air Force, beat them on a neutral, and Louisville was better than Missouri, and Missouri really held their own in the trenches against Army, lost by just 2 despite moving to a 7 point under dog. Missouri’s average defensive line stats, including standard downs, avg line, power, stuff is 93.5, compared to Louisville at 75. I believe Louisville is more capable of showing a good performance against the run, and their offense is much more explosive than Missouri. Louisville has done a great job on third down with 36.18% conversions allowed on the year. Louisville’s defensive staff actually has more experience defending the option and they have had some extra time to prepare for Air Force.
