Kent State +3.5 2.2% play / Kent State +150 1% play
This is a very interesting game, and I think we are getting some extra value here, because the MAC is 0-3 in bowl games, and the Mountain West is 2-0, and then you ad din the fact that Wyoming went 2-0 vs. the MAC, and beat Northern Illinois on the road 50-43, while Kent State lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. A closer look reveals that Wyoming forced 3 turnovers against Northern Illinois and gave up well over 6 ypc. Kent State, which is known for their up tempo offense was facing Northern Illinois for the second time this season, which makes it much easier to play against if you’ve seen it before, and Kent State actually did a better job running and stopping the run against Northern Illinois, which is actually shocking for a Wyoming team known for their defense.
Wyoming’s defense ranked 32nd in ypp, but they faced an average opponent ypp offense ranking 84th. There are holes in this defense that haven’t been there in the past. They actually ranked 70th in epa run defense, 85th in ypc defense, and that’s the key for Kent State’s fast paced offense as they run the ball 58% of the time, but they are also an offense that can beat you with the pass with Dustin Crum under center. This is the best offense that Wyoming has faced all year. All the other offenses they faced were not in the top 50 in rushing and passing, and Wyoming went 1-3 this season against top 50 success rate offenses, and Kent State ranks 3rd in success rate offense. Their lone win was vs. Northern Illinois, but again they forced 3 INT’s, and I don’t see that as something Crum will commit here.
Kent State beat a Mountain West opponent 2 years ago that was no better than this Wyoming team as they won 51-41 against Utah State. I really like what Sean Lewis is building here, and I think the world of Wyoming’s HC, but Wyoming has some real head scratchers this season. Not only did they play a far weaker non-conference schedule with Uconn, and 2 MAC teams while Kent State played 3 power 5 opponents including Iowa and Texas A&M on the road, but Wyoming had some real clunkers getting blown out at home against Hawaii, barely getting by Uconn by 2 points, losing to horrible teams like New Mexico and San Jose State, yet people are running to the window to bet Wyoming here, and I just don’t see how you can play Wyoming given those facts. I get it Kent State’s defense is awful, but Wyoming really doesn’t have a top defense to slow them down, and it’s the first time all year they are going to play a team that plays this fast.
My biggest reason for taking Kent State however is their ability to win the TO battle. They rank top 25 in fewest possessions ending in a TO on offense, Wyoming is outside the top 100, and their defense ranks top 25 in forcing TO’s per possessions, while Wyoming ranks outside the top 100. Wyoming +7 TO margin in their wins, -10 in losses, while Kent State is +14 in wins, and -1 in losses. Kent State should win the TO battle and win this game outright.
