Western Kentucky +135 3% Money Line Play
First of all the spread rarely matters in bowl games, and with such a high total I really don’t think getting a +3 is of any value so we are going with the money line here. These two had common opponents in Marshall, while Western Kentucky went on the road as a 1 point favorite, and were +1.26 YPP, and App State hosted as a 7 point home favorite and was -0.42 YPP. Those lines indicate these two teams are even yet on a neutral field App State is a 3 point favorite. Add in the fact that App State is also without their top WR Corey Sutton, and I think we have some value in the number with the Hilltoppers.
Western Kentucky’s offense is one of the best in the country, and they have a ton to play for. Their two OC’s are headed out, but HC Tyson Helton said OC Zach Kittley will remain to coach in this game, which tells me everything I need to know, this game matters. QB Bailey Zappe is going after Joe Burrow’s record, and I would imagine that Western Kentucky wants to win this after the devastating tornadoes that hit their county this past week. The Basketball team dedicated their most recent win to the victims and you have to think it means something here.
App State to me is not the same App State team as years past and they did not face as tough of a schedule as Western Kentucky who faced two P5 opponents compared to 1 for App State. Against similar type of teams, App State went 1-3, and their only win was against Marshall by 1 points, a team that Western Kentucky destroyed 53-21. That 1-3 record came against Lafayette +1 ypp diff vs. opp -0.39, Miami +0.2 vs. 0.35, and Marshall +1.2 vs. -0.26. Western Kentucky easily better than all 3 of those teams +1.5 ypp vs. -0.39.
Western Kentucky faced UTSA in their Championship game and got down early, but App State has been a slow starter all year long. When it was said and done I was happy my play on UTSA held on +3.5, as Western Kentucky nearly over came -3 TO margin and they were +1.1 YPP in the game. UTSA actually has nearly identical numbers to App State, run first team solid defense, special teams, but they don’t turn the ball over yet they were a 3.5 point dog at home in a Conference Championship game. I think App State is getting far too much credit for their 6-0 mark in Bowl Games. There is a major mismatch here, and that’s Western Kentucky’s ability to force turnovers they rank 8th in opponent possessions ending in a TO, and have 19 INT. I didn’t trust Chase Brice with his #1 WR, I certainly don’t trust him without, and App State ranks 85th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO. Lafayette ranked 24th in forcing turnovers and they forced 5 in their two matchups. Win the TO margin and you win most games.
The biggest concern I have with Western Kentucky is the weather, which as of right now in Boca Raton shows 10mph winds with 20mph gusts, and some rain, but it’s 25-30% chance, and the wind is not significant.
