Iowa +11 3.3 %play
Michigan should win this game by 2TD’s or more, but it’s coming off a win over Ohio State their biggest rivalry and I get they are in the college football playoff, but all that means to me is that they are playing with immense pressure, and Iowa is in a role of spoiler, a role they absolute love. Iowa really is the outlier and will be playing with no pressure at all. I think they have a coaching edge, and can catch Michigan with trick plays or however they want to surprise a Michigan team that may have had a hard time concentrating this week after their win over Ohio State, and looking forward to the College Football Playoff.
Iowa will be under appreciated here, Iowa has been a double digit dog only 5 times since 2013 and has gone 4-1 ATS including an outright upset of Michigan as a 24 point dog back in 2016. Iowa really matches up well against Michigan on defense, and Michigan who runs the ball 60% of the time has typically struggled offensively against top run defenses, and this is the best run defense since Wisconsin that they have faced this year. The dog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings between these two.
If there is one advantage Iowa has here it’s their ability to turn opponents over vs. Michigan’s ability to turn opponents over. Iowa #1 in opponent’s possessions ending in TO’s while Michigan is 68th. Michigan is also 68th in epa run defense, so I think there is some room there for Iowa to have some long ugly drives that really limit the possessions in this game. Both teams are already among the slowest teams in temp with 27seconds per play. Iowa does have a stud at RB who can catch out of the backfield, and I expect Iowa who has a chance
