SD State -6 1.1% Free Play
San Diego State will start their back up QB, but it’s not a bad thing he gave them a jolt coming in relief in the Boise game and is a Sr. who knows this offense. The value of San Diego State is in their defense that can stop the pass and the run. Utah State averaged 38.4 ppg in their wins and 13.3 in their losses. All 3 losses to Byu, Boise, and Wyoming were by double digits, and I expect much of the same here. All three of those teams sport top defenses.
Utah State’s offense relies on their passing game they are completely one dimensional and even their passing game is a bit one dimensional relying heavily on explosive plays ranking 12th in 20+ yard passing plays. San Diego State ranks 7th in explosive plays allowed, very similarly to Wyoming’s pass defense in a lot of ways San Diego State and Wyoming are similar and Wyoming drubbed Utah State 44-17. In games where Utah State has faced top 40 passing defenses they have only averaged 18 points per game. On the flip side when San Diego State has faced top passing offenses they have held them 10.2 points under their season average. Fresno State had the most success in their win, but Fresno at the time was far more balanced and was a top 50 passing and rushing team. Utah State ranks 95th in rushing ypc.
San Diego State’s offense gets a bad wrap, but when we look closer these two teams aren’t that far off offensively. Utah State actually ranks 94th in success rate while San Diego State ranks 102nd. Then there is a large gap on the defensive side. Utah State ranks 91st in ypc allowed and that has come against a poor group of rushing offenses ranking 77th. San Diego State has averaged +2 points on their season average when facing a non top 75 rushing defense. That puts them at around 30 points for this game. I think even with line move, and the lack of home field advantage for San Diego State we have value as I see San Diego State wining by a TD or more.
