Syracuse +12.5 2.2% play
This situation is a bit similar to yesterday's East Carolina play +14 against Cincinnati, which if you go back to watch that game they should have covered. TWo special teams TD's, one big pass play. Pitt clearly wants to get to 10 wins, but up next is the ACC Championship game, and we saw this play out before back in 2018. Pitt wraps up a trip to the ACC Championship over Wake, goes to play Miami on the road the week before the ACC Championship knowing they are already going. To me it is coaching in these spots. Pitt went on to lose 24-3 in that game. Pitt is 7-14-1 as a double digit favorite since 2014, which is more about this head coach Narduzzi, who I totally respect. However, I want to back the defensive minded HC as a dog not a favorite. He's also proven many times to be quite conservative by going for field goals instead of TD's, and I would bet if this team is up by double digits he's going to trust his defense to finish the game and maybe call off the dogs.
Syracuse on the other hand 5-1 ATS at home 3-0 as dog, and is a very dangerous team. Their defense gets pressure from 3 man front, which I believe is going to give Pickett some issues here. Their 4 road games have been pretty easy in teh fact that they faced pass rushes all outside the top 60, and Syracuse has the 18th ranked pass rush. Pitt has gone 1-2 vs. top 60 pass rushes this season, and their win against Clemson honestly could have gone either way if you watch that game back. Syracuse's defense also top 10 in 10+ yard plays allowed on defense. Syracuse offense has a tough match up against a top run defense, but they have proven they are able to still run against good run defenses, and they play slow enough that I think they can hang in there and cover this spread. Syracuse also fighting for bowl eligibility, and they have a solid home field advantage
