Kentucky +3 1.1% Free Play
Louisville’s wins have come against bad teams. Their best win is over Florida State on the road very early in the season before Florida State was good. Their other wins came against Boston College without their QB, and then most recently beat Syracuse, and blew out a bad Duke team. That recency bias has made Louisville a favorite over a very good SEC Kentucky team?
These are two top 10 rushing attacks, but Kentucky has the far better run defense ranking 33rd in epa run defense, while Louisville ranks 88th. Kentucky’s offense has only gotten better since previous years as they have a QB that can throw, and an elite WR in Wan’Dale Robinson. Louisville’s offense has also improved, but I believe it’s a bit misleading as they really haven’t played many top defenses other than Clemson, and NC State, both losses. Louisville’s offense relies heavily on the explosive play, and Kentucky has a strong DL that keeps everything in front of them. They rank 16th with only 38 20+ yard plays on the year.
Kentucky’s biggest issue on the season has been the turnovers, but they face a defense that doesn’t force them. Louisville ranks 111th in opponent TO % per possession. Kentucky on paper has a huge edge on third down, and I think it will carry over in this rivalry game.
