Oklahoma +4.5 3.3% play
Recency bias and 79% of the money is driving this number from -1 Oklahoma State all the way to -4.5, and I just can’t pass up the opportunity to back the Sooners here.
In reality this rushing offense from Oklahoma State is nothing special, and they have gotten by with it thank to their defense, but they are playing the best offense they have faced all year this week that is also the best run defense they have faced and they are a 4 point favorite against a desperate Oklahoma team that has more talent, has had their number, and is typically always a favorite. You’re asking Spencer Sanders to throw the ball to win by a TD in my opinion I don’t see Oklahoma State doing so. ON the other side you have a struggling Oklahoma offense the last two games, but do we expect that to happen a third game in a row? That’s also in the number here. I was going to be on Oklahoma State, but figured this game would be a pk, but it’s just the 3rd time in the last 11 years that Oklahoma State is favored and they lost the last two.
Lincoln Riley seems to have give Oklahoma State’s defense issues. Jim Knowles has not had answers giving up 48, 34, and 41 points to Oklahoma. The offense is not as good as previous years, but they still put up 41 points last year with Spencer Rattler at QB. Yes, Oklahoma State is better on defense this year, but they still were a top 25 ypp defense a season ago. Oklahoma has not faced any good defenses until their last two games and they really struggled moving the ball, but if anything they can only improve. They have a true freshman QB now that has the experience of the Baylor game under his belt, and a rushing offense that is really starting to click.
The weakness of Oklahoma’s defense is the pass defense, and I just don’t feel like Oklahoma State can take advantage of that enough. I’m sure they’ll get their yards, but this team is a different team when they can’t run the ball, and it’s not like they have been amazing running the ball ranking 86th in epa run
offense, and will go up against Oklahoma who ranks 20th. Overall, Oklahoma has the slightly better numbers, and Oklahoma State is at home. I see clear value on Oklahoma.
