East Carolina +14 3.3% play
I think this is a dangerous game for Cincinnati going up against a very good East Carolina team coming off a very impressive win at Navy last week in what should have been a flat spot against a team like Navy. East Carolina also took Houston to OT on the road and outgained them in the game. They gave Cincinnati all they could have 2 years ago at home, and there is far more on the line with Cincinnati playing with all the pressure here.
East Carolina’s weakness on defense is their run defense, although they have showed up from time to time, and facing Navy definitely has made their defense look worse. They held Houston to less than 100 yards on the ground on the road, and overall their run defense has been very good at home holding opponents to 1.6 ypc less, while Cincinnati just 3.95 ypc on the road, which is over 2 yard per carry less than at home. So there is reason to believe they just can’t flat out dominate on the ground in this game, and I think they’ll want to be careful throwing the ball as East Carolina ranks 28th in epa pass defense, and 16th in % of opponent possessions ending in a TO, while Cinci’s offense ranks 84th in percentage of their offensive possessions ending in TO. East Carolina also one of the best third down defenses in the nation allowing just 30.83% conversions. I don’t think Cincinnati feels like they need margin, and expect them to win by single digits. East Carolina has been in all of their games this year they have a veteran QB in Houston Ahlers and a capable running game. East Carolina has a lot of similarities to Tulsa, a team that gave Cincinnati issues at home nearly upsetting them.
