Miami Ohio -1 3.3% play

Winner to face Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. I know many had Kent State to win the conference this season and I do think the winner of this game will beat Northern Illinois, but I’m going to have to go with Miami Ohio on the road.  Kent State ranks 4^th in success rate offense, and they rank 3^rd in seconds per play, so expect a fast paced game.  Kent State’s defense is a real concern they rank 105^th in ypp, 127^th in success rate defense, 115^th vs. the pass and 104^th in epa run defense.  So they can’t stop the pass, and they can’t stop the run.  While Miami Ohio comes into the game a little more balanced.  They have the better #’s against a slightly tougher schedule.  They have a couple of match up advantages here, but overall they have a +0.7 ypp differential vs. an average opponent ypp differential of -0.4, while Kent State is -0.3 ypp vs. -0.48. 

Defensively Miami Ohio should slow Kent State down enough.  They have 13^th ranked sack % unit, and Kent State has struggled protecting Dustin Crum at times ranking 109^th in sack % allowed.  If Miami Ohio can stop Kent State’s running game on early downs I believe they can get off the field, and Miami Ohio ranks 31^st in success rate defense.

Mimai Ohio’s offense is also a strength.  They rank 36^th in ypp, and rely heavily on their passing attack, which ranks 10^th in epa, and will get to go up against 115^th ranked pass defense.  I think Brett Gabbert who is played well this season 26 TD’s 6 INT’s.  He missed 3 games and Miami Ohio went 1-2 in those.  The spread says these two teams are pretty even, but I think Miami Ohio is more balanced and have the better overall #’s against a tougher schedule so I’m going with Miami Ohio.

Where to find Freddy?