Ole MIss +3 -120 3.5% play

Ole miss comes into the game with 2 losses just the same as A&M, but they are home dogs in a night game against #11 team.  I like Ole Miss here in this spot.  This is just A&M’s second true road game, the first one was against a hopeless Missouri team.  They played two neutral sight games against Colorado, and the offense really struggled, and Arkansas losing 20-10.  A&M has injury issues in their secondary that will probably finally hurt them here.  They have freshman and sophomore’s playing and it’s in reality their first road game.  They also have two freshman starting on the OL, which is not a great recipe when you face an aggressive defense like Ole Miss that ranks 5th in sack %, and rank 20th in defensive TO %.  Texas A&M’s offense ranks 75th in offensive drives ending in a TO.  Ole Miss also very good on third down defense and should be able to get the Aggies off the field.  Aggies scored points of late, but 6 of their last 15 TD’s have come on defense, or special teams or short fields.  Ole Miss 8th in TO %.  I just don’t see the Aggies getting anything easy here in a night game with a Heisman Trophy candidate in Matt Corral.  This could be his last chance to have the Heisman moment.

To beat A&M’s defense you must have a balanced offense.  Ole Miss clearly has that with Matt Corral at the helm.  He is a mobile QB, but he can throw too and the offense has a legit rushing offense that ranks 8th in epa.  Arkansas, a similar team overall to Ole Miss had a balanced rushing and passing attack and they really controlled that game on a neutral site against the Aggies beating them 20-10.

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