Arkansas -4 2.2% play
Arkansas comes into this game well rested, and well prepared, and the style of defense they play should give Miss State’s pass offense issues. They had 3 int’s in last year’s game and this defense is much improved, they are 34th in epa pass defense, 20th in QB rating defense, 35th ins uccess rate defense, and they are only allowing 31.25% conversions on third downs, and 42% of red zone trips at home to end in a TD.
On the flip side Miss State’s defense has been stout, but they are now on the road facing a fresh team that can run the ball and pass, and have a dual threat QB who can score in the red zone. Arkansas is the far more balanced team, and they are hungry for an SEC win. They also get the extra time to come up with a plan and study the route tree of Mike Leach’s offense, which is always an advantage for an opposing defense. It’s very similar to facing the triple option, you aren’t used to seeing it but when you do have extra time it’s a benefit, and I don’t think it’s being calculated into the number. Barry Odom’s defense also plays 3 DL and drops guys in coverage so if they can force some TO’s again they win this game by 7. Part of the reason Miss State beat Kentucky was they forced 4 turnovers, but Arkansas ranks 10th in offensive possession TO%.
