Memphis +4.5 3.3% play
SMU off a dream crushing loss against Houston as they gave up a 100 yard kickoff return for a TD. Still we have over 70% of the action on SMU here against a 4 loss Memphis team that’s off a bye +1 extra day. QB Seth Henigan is still ? here with a hand injury, but I think he will go, but if he doesn’t, Memphis will definitely have a better game plan for the dual threat Parish in this game, and he’ll get to go up against a pass defense that ranks 117th in epa compared to UCF who ranked 28th.
SMU was undefeated, and now they need help to get into the AAC Championship game. I think they are a bit over rated when you consider their opponent average ypp differential is -1.01, and they are only +0.8 ypp. Compare that with Memphis who is +1 ypp vs. -0.5. Memphis YPP differential is better than Houston’s. SMU also needs to be able to run the ball on the road in order to win. They average just 2 ypc against Houston, and last year in their losses they averaged 2.79 ypc compared to over 5 in their wins, and in 2019 they average over a yard less in their losses than their wins. Memphis defensive strength is their run defense, and they haeld both Navy and Texas San Antonio’s running games in check at the Liberty Bowl. Navy ran 65 times for just 198 yards, while UTSA ran 62 for 205. SMU obviously passes the ball more, but I like Memphis with the extra week to prepare to come in with a good game plan, and I think their offense will be able to score some points against a defense that ranks 90th in YPP, and that is coming against an average offensive opponent ranking 87th. Memphis ranks 30th. I think UCF is better than SMU, and I think Memphis is better than Houston. Tons of value here at +4.
