South Carolina +18.5 3.3% play
This is far too many points in my opinion as Florida really does not have a ton of motivation the week after Georgia and being a 4 loss team. They also are on the road facing a South Carolina team off the bye, and a South Carolina team that does play good defense, and has faced the tougher schedule. There has not been a meeting between these two decided by more than 14 points since 2012. Both teams play slow, which should keep the clock ticking, and Dan Mullen has shown he is fine playing conservatively on the road.
South Carolina will get Zeb Noland starting here at QB he’s been their best option, but I think they may actually be able to get the running game going. They average over a yard more per carry at home, and Florida has had major issues in run defense at times this year ranking 64th in ypc they have allowed 2.02 ypc more on the road than at home. So that’s likely the route South Carolina takes in this game in my opinion while they have struggled running the ball they have faced an average run defense ranking 45th in ypc.
South Carolina’s defense has been a top 50 unit ranking 46th vs. the run, and even better at home and 25th in epa pass defense. They have allowed 1 passing TD and 6 INT’s at home this year, so I don’t expect Dan Mullen to pass very often here on the road especially since his QB’s have had TO issues with 9 INT in 4 road games they are -5 TO Margin on the road, while South Carolina is +3. Expect a conservative game for Florida here that gets them the win, but South Carolina at 4-4 is fighting for bowl eligibility off a bye and have played very hard for Beamer. This is also a night game at home for South Carolina and we can expect 75,000+.
