Florida +14 2.2% play
If you don’t look at the records, and blank out the teams the stats are pretty close between these two. Georgia ranks 9th in ypp offense, Florida ranks 3rd. Georgia ranks #1 in ypp defense, and Florida ranks 23rd. Florida’s defensive number surprised me a bit when looking at this match up and they have clearly faced a tougher schedule of offenses. I just can’t forget about how Georgia looked against Clemson to open the season winning 10-3, on a pick six.
Florida under Dan Mullen has seemed to play up/down depending on the competition. Dan Mullen off a bye should be able to put together a game plan to put some points on the board, and Kirby Smart has been known to be extremely conservative in big games, and I don’t know if that changes here. Georgia has not been explosive in their running game with only 2 rushes over 30 yards, and Florida has only allowed 1 rush over 30 yard all season. Georgia is 83rd in epa run offense, and that’s the route they will use to attack Florida. They’ll be able to move the ball, but they rank 121st at 29 sec/play, it will be hard to cover a 14 point spread with Florida also running the ball and keeping this clock moving.
Both teams have QB controversies, but Florida’s group is much more dynamic, but also more turnover worthy. I think we will see more of Anthony Richardson, while Georgia will probably get JT Daniels back in the mix, but Daniels has struggled against top defenses, and Florida ranks 21st in epa pass defense, and 19th in sack %.
