Iowa State -7 2.2% play
I backed West Virginia +4.5 last week and they won outright on the road against TCU, a very bad defense. West Virginia will return home to play Iowa State, a defense built to stop the style of offense West Virginia runs. West Virginia under Neal Brown needs to run the ball. This year 4.71ypc in wins, 2.60 in losses, and last year 4.64 ypc in wins, but 2.10 in losses. The last two years they have run for a total of 95 yards in 2 games vs. Iowa State and have lost 20-80. Just like Matt Campbell has struggled against Iowa State, he has owned West Virginia and Neal Brown. West Virginia under Neal Brown has faced 9 top 50 ypp defenses, and they have gone 1-8 in those games averaging just 13.8 points per game, and have lost on average by 21.8 ppg.
Where is West Virginia’s edge in this game? I just don’t see it, and Iowa State is playing with a ton of momentum right now. They are an experienced team on a quest to get back to the Big 12 Championship. West Virginia’s weakness vs. the pass ranking 98th in epa is alarming, and Iowa State is balanced offensively. The last balanced offense West Virginia faced was Baylor who beat them 45-20. Iowa State outgained Baylor on the road by 200+ yards. Iowa State wins in a blow out.
