Texas +3 -120 3.5% play
Baylor had all the momentum with back to back impressive wins over West Virginia and BYU, and that is not when you want to go on a bye. Texas off back to back losses and in a tough three game stretch having faced TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St, and that’s the exact time you want to go on a bye.
On paper Baylor look sto have the better run offense and defense, but Baylor’s rushing attack has feasted on poor run defense. 75% of their yards and TD’s have come against an average epa run defense ranked 110th + FCS foe, who they had 400 yards rushing. Texas clearly not a defensive juggernaut ranking 112thn in epa run defense, but they have faced an average epa run offense ranking 41st. They’ve proven that they can keep good rushing attacks in check as they held TCU and Texas Tech under 200 yards rushing.
Baylor has faced only two offenses who can run the ball in Iowa State and Oklahoma State. They lost by 10 to Oklahoma St, and against Iowa State they were outgained by 200+ yards and were extremely lucky to get the win. Texas also has the added dynamic of a running QB, and we saw Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders run for 76 yards against Baylor.
TO’s and special teams are pretty even between these two, and while I do give Baylor some home field advantage it’s not quite as tough when they host a team from Texas. Why? Texas fans travel, and you don’t have the added advantage of the weather
