West Virginia +4.5 3.3% play
It was clear to me that West Virginia was gassed 2 weeks ago before their bye. They had a challenging schedule and travel, and they just got their ass kicked by Baylor who surprised them with a lot of big plays in the passing game. The bye week came at a good time for this team to rest up and self scout, and I think they come out with their best game of the season here. TCU is in the opposite situation where they just got done plays three Texas schools in a row, and then @Oklahoma last week. What does this team have left?
The match up also favors West Virginia here as TCU runs 60.65% of the time, but West Virginia's defensive strength is their run defense, which ranks 22nd in ypc, and 25th in epa. That has come against a challenging schedule of offensese ranked 47.8 in ypc. TCU is 5th, but they are also banged up a bit as Max Duggan and Chris Evans have foot injuries. They will play and are probably, bu tyou ahve to question how long until maybe they are impacted by it. TCU also going up against a top 50 run defense last year averaged 10 points less than their season average and went 1-3, and they are 0-2 this year against top 60 run defenses. West Virginia is #3 in the nation in tackles for loss, which could help set TCU up in third and long, and West Virginia ranks 27th in sack %. TCU has protected Duggan well, but they have faced an average 87.4 sack % defense.
West Virginia's offense has struggled at time this year, but they catch a break facing a tired TCU defense that ranks 125th in ypp, 125th in epa run defense, and 100th in epa pass defense. West Virginia scored 38, 37, and 27 points last year when they were not playing top defenses.
Finally, West Virginia 2-4 is desparate for a win. They have a challenging schedule the rest of the way so a bowl game is still in the mix, but it starts with a win here. TCU at 3-3 is in the same situation of course, but I would argue that West Virginia could sustain that level of energy for longer especially since they are off a bye.
