Auburn +4.5 3.3% PLAY
These teams are pretty even statistically, and I think Auburn matches up well against Arkansas physical offense. I also don’t think you can give Arkansas 3 points for home field, and I like that Bo Nix has actually played better on the road and has played in far more challenging spots on the road this season. He faced Penn State on the road in a white out, and they were in that game in the 4th quarter when they trailed 21-20 and had the ball. They went on to lose 28-20. Auburn also came back at LSU in Death Valley at night, which is not something Auburn would have done in the past.
Auburn also looked better against Georgia than Arkansas did. Georgia lost their defensive leader Smoke Monday in the second quarter because of targeting and he’ll be back here. Auburn’s receivers also had several key drops in the game one that led to a Georgia interception, which is correctable. The other thing to mention here is Auburn was a 13.5 point favorite at home against Arkansas last year, and although they barely held on 30-28, and there were some questionable calls. They're now a 4.5 point dog on the road that’s a 12 point adjustment if we are saying home field is 3 points. I don't think Arkansas gets a 3 point home field for a noon game. I don't know how you can justify a 12 point line move for these teams. What has Auburn done wrong this season? They lost to Penn State and Georgia. That weird game against Georgia state seems to be in the back of everyone's mind, but I think that's aiding us here in some line value. I think this game comes down to the wire here.
