Air Force +4 2.2% play
Boise State is off a road win against Top 10 BYU, but it was completely misleading in the fact taht BYU had 4 turnovers and several missed conversions on 4th down. Boise has showed up in the misleading final report many times, and Boise State's injury report is starting to grow, and Air Force comes into this game playing confident football. This is not the same Boise STate as years past, and Air Force has had some decent success against Boise in the past. They ran for over 415 yards on Boise just last year, and this Boise run defense is even worse than they were a year ago when they ranked 47th vs. the run against an average opponent defense ranking 52nd. This year htey rank 81st in defensive ypc, and 62nd in EPA run defense, and I expect Air Force to be able to control the game.
Boise State's offense has not played any better than their defense. They are extremely one dimensional ranking 124th in running the ball so a Boise State team that once controlled the trenches on the ground on offense and defense is no longer doing so. Boise State has relied on fiel dposition, special teams and TO MARGIN, and Air Force is really good +8.2 field position on the year, and they are 9th in TO margin. Boise Also uncharacteristically giving up 45.56% on third down. Last year they were only allowing 27%. That is good news for Air Force who will look to control this game with their triple option by picking up third downs.
