NAVY +11 3.3% PLAY
Playing the triple option on a short week is not an ideal time. Last year Memphis got to face a historically bad Navy offense, and they did so by facing after an FCS foe. They definitely had success, but narrowly escapted 10-7. Memphis defense is just not very good especially against the run. On paper thye rank 60th in ypc allowed, but they have faced an average rushing ypc team ranked 94.2. Their EPA run defense ranks 93rd. This actually may be the worst run defense that Navy has faced all year, and Memphis not very good on 3rd downs, which is the key to getting service academies off the field and winning by double digits. Memphis has allowed 45.45% conversions, and that has come against offenses who are only averaging 38.53%. Mike MaCyntyre is a long time coach and the DC for Memphis who you would think has a lot of experience facing option teams. He was here last year when they faced it, but before that he did not face at Ole Miss, he did not face it at Colorado from 2013-18, and 2010-12 he did not face Air Force at San Jose State. 2009 when he was the DC at Duke they gave up 277 yards to Army. His defenses have rarely been good against the run, and I just feel like Navy is starting to figure things out on offense.
Navy fired their OC and since then the offense has turned things around upsetting UCF 34-30, losing to SMU last week by only 7 - 31-24. SMUs run defense is far better than Memphis. On paper Navy's offense does not look great as they rank 84th in ypc, and 126th yards per play, but they have faced some tough defenses. On aveage the opponent ypp defense ranks 40th. So there is some reason to believe their numbers will improve down the stretch and facing a Memphis defense that is not very good particularly against hte run or pass could be a great opporntunity for Navy.
Memphis offense has been great however, and that's why they are a double digit favorite, but this is not the same Memphis teams, and while they rank 20th in ypp it has come against an average opponent ypp rank of 82.2. Navy 's defense ranks 55th in epa pass defense, 39th in epa run defense and 50th in success rate, and that has not come against poor offenses. Their average opponent ypp offense is 40.4. There is just too much value for me here add in the fact that beating a service academy by double digits is very hard to do unless you are going to absolutely shut out their running game, which I have already established I don't believe Memphis can. Memphis additionally has struggled all year with turnovers ranking 124th in TO margin while Navy ranks 50th. The one clear advantage Memphis has in this game is special teams, but it's not enough for them to win and cover by double digits in my opinion.
