Missouri -19 3.3% play

This game just screams blowout to me with North Texas wanting to play fast with 89 plays per game ranking #1 in the nation, but they rank 125^th in yards per play, -2.1 ypp differential.  You have an angry Missouri team, particularly their defense, which just gave up 62 to Tennessee.  Drinkewitz fired their DL coach, because he felt there was a lack of effort by the DL, and he said this week in press that there is no depth chart, and that whoever practices best is going to play.  I think we see a very high effort by this defense, and it’s going to come against an offense that really hasn’t been able to move the ball ranking 117^th in success rate, 119^th in epa pass offense, and that has come against weak competition.  Meanwhile Missouri for all of their defensive struggles at least it has come against quality offensive opponents ranking 46^th in ypp.

Missouri’s offense on the other hand has not been the problem.  They like to run plays, and they like to pass the ball, and I expect them to have a field day against a North Texas defense that ranks 125^th in qb rating defense, 115^th in epa pass defense.  Missouri ranks 29^th in success rate offense, and 31^st in epa passing offense, and it’s just not a good match up for North Texas.  North Texas is also 108^th in special teams and has average -9.1 yards in net field position.  Missouri is 29^th in special teams so expect them to have short fields all day.