Iowa -154 4% Play
Let’s just start off by saying there are huge advantages for Iowa in the intangibles of coaching and special teams. Two key components that a lot of people just overlook. Mayrland has looked a lot better than they really are, because they have been good in TO margin and have enjoyed a +9.3 net yardage in field position. Iowa is better ranking 17th in TO margin and +10.8 net yards in field position. This is a massive game for Maryland, but that does not mean they will come through against Iowa, a team that has been here before. Can Maryland handle the pressure? I don’t know if they can. I saw a lot of drops by the WR last week against Kent State.
Maryland’s offense has definitely been impressive with Baby Tua leading the way and a legit NFL WR in Demus. However, this unit really has not faced a defense remotely close to Iowa. Iowa has a senior laden secondary and is balanced. They are top 10 in stopping the run, they are top 15 in defending the pass, and they can also get to the QB ranking 30th in sack %. You could say Iowa has not faced any offenses, as their average opponent ypp ranks 87th, but of those offenses they have faced all of them have faced very tough defenses. Just look at Kent State who faced A&M, Iowa, and Maryland. Kent State actually averaged 1.58 yards per play more vs. Maryland than they did against Iowa, and honestly watching that game the refs took a lot of points off the board for questionable calls. I honestly question if Maryland can get to 100 yards rushing in this game, and Baby Tua absolutely needs some balance to put up points. In their last 5 games without 100 yards rushing they have averaged only 7.6ppg. This offense relies far too much on the explosive plays and Iowa is top 10 at limiting those.
Iowa’s offense has struggled big time this year, but when you really look at it they have faced very good defenses. Colorado State ranks 2nd against the run, Iowa State ranks 6th. Indiana is far better than their defensive rankings say as they have faced on average top 40 run offenses and pass offenses. Maryland ranks 25th in stopping the run, but that has come against an average rushing ypc offense of 83rd, and their 31st ranked QB rating defense is fraudulent as they have faced an average QB rating of 96 by opposing offenses, and their EPA/pass defense paints a different picture where they rank 78th. Kent State was able to move the ball at will on Maryland, but couldn’t turn their trips inside Maryland territory into 7pts. I think Spencer Petras if very under rated at QB, and I think Kirk Ferentz likes to muddy up some of the stats to make his team look worse.
