TCU +4.5 2.2% play
TCU +4.5 2.2% / TCU +165 1%
TCU played their worst game of the season, while Texas played their best. Now the hype for Texas is back after their last 2 games beating Rice 58-0, and Texas Tech 70-35. They have their biggest game of the season next week in the Red River Rivalry. The last 14 seasons Texas has gone 2-10-1 ATS the week before their rivalry game against Oklahoma, and have missed covering the spread by 16.7pts on average in those 10 losses. TCU has really dominated this series covering 6 of the last 7 by an average of 19.75points. I think it’s the reason the books are reluctant to move this game off 4 despite 90% tickets, and 72% of the money on Texas.
TCU’s defense has been pretty bad this year, but Texas has not been much better. They both rank outside the top 100 in rushing defense, and their pass defense is also outside the top 100 in epa/pass allowed. TCU has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan who is a dual threat QB, and their offense has been great to start the season. TCU will be home for this game, and both teams want to run the ball, and TCU is the better running team actually as they rank 8th in epa/run and that comes against a far tougher schedule of defense ranking 28.5, compared to Texas who ranks 49th, against an average run defense ranking 74. I know Texas switched their QB to Thompson, but it’s hard to forget their performance in their last road game against Arkansas where they were completely dominated.
