Nebraska +5 3.3% PLAY

Michigan State just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and they host Nebraska at night who is desparate for a big time win.  Nebraska has played extremely well since losing to Illinois to start the season and was in that game against Oklahoma last week on the road.  I like that Nebraska got to play on the road in a hostile environment and use that to their advantage for this upcoming week. 

Michigan State’s weakness has been Nebraska’s strength.  Nebraska ranks 21^st in EPA/pass, and 52% in passing success rate, and they are only getting healthier at WR.  Martinez has done a 180 since that Illinois game, and it seems like he’s playing with a different level of confidence.  This Michigan State secondary ranks 83^rd in EPA/pass defense and gave up 6 explosive passing play to Northwestern of all offenses.  Nebraska has the added dimension of Martinez being a threat to run, and that should open up for some explosive plays in this game for this Nebraska offense.

Just 28% of the tickets on Nebraska here, but I think they are a live dog and can pull an upset