Wisconsin -6.5 3.3% play
We have the #12 team against the #18 team, and the #18 team is 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field (Soldier Field). We have just 30% of the tickets on Wisconsin but the money is about even, and the line which opened up at 5.5 is out to 6.5.
Notre Dame has not played well this season despite their 3-0 record. I have major questions on the offensive line, as they have already given up 14 sacks, and while Wisconsin doesn’t sack the QB they have 28 total pressures in 2 games. Of course the story here is Jack Coan, at QB for Notre Dame who came from Wisconsin, and I think the advantage lies on the side of Wisconsin’s defense and Jim Leonard the DC who has had plenty of time to go back and look at Jack Coan’s tape, during their bye week. Coan is not helped at all by the running game that is averaging just 2.9ypc.
At the end of the day I’m backing the team that is better running the ball, and defending the run. Wisconsin ranks 44th in EPA/run, and 2nd in EPA/run defense while Notre Dame is 121st in EPA/run offense, and 78th in EPA/run defense. Wisconsin has clearly played a tougher opponent in Penn State, and that loss looks better given how Penn St has looked so far, and Wisconsin really should have won that game, but had 4 opportunities in side Penn State’s 25 yard line and had 0 points. They’ll have to change that this week, and if they can avoid costly turnovers I believe they win this game by double digits.
