UTSA +135 3% PLAY

I gave out Memphis +140 last week, and while it turned out a winner, I am not naïve to think that was not complete luck.  Memphis got outgained by 222 yards, and relied on a 49 yard fumble return, and a 94 yard punt return TD that was very controversial and they still nearly lost this game.  UTSA on the other hand sits at 3-0, and they just beat MTSU 27-13, but that game was not even close as UTSA had a 253 yard edge including 175-8 on the ground.  123 of MTSU’s yards came in garbage time as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes of the game.

UTSA ranks 14th in EPA/play margin, and have impressive win at Illinois under their belt so going to play at Memphis should not phase this team that is really balanced all over the field ranking top 50 in a lot of offensive and defensive metrics.  I think Frank Harris at QB can have a big day with his feet and arm as Memphis defense looks lost sometimes.  This is a team that gave up 50 points to Arkansas State the week before, and looked a bit better against Miss State due to the familiarity of the coaching staff and that offense.  Memphis defense has not been tested on the ground and I think they will be here.  Meanwhile UTSA has been stout against the run, and are allowing just 48.8% completion percentage.

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