Washington +7 3.3% NCAAF play

This is probably the buy low sell high game of the week after Michigan dominated Western Michigan, and Washington fell to an FCS foe in Montana as a 22 point favorite at home.  This line moved 5-6 points after Saturday's games, and I think it's far too much value after digging into some things here.

Let's kick things off with Washington first who lost to MOntana, a top 10 FCS team, which makes it sound not as bad.  They had 3 turnovers which cost them the game, and their defense played extremely well.  Unless Jimmy Lake is just a horrible coach, and that could be possible I think they rebound here.  I think the players will be ultra focused the week after a loss like that, and again defense travels, and defense was not the issue here.  Washington is strong up front, and always have a good secondary under Lake, and I'm more worried offense who lost their best player in the game Ronnie Bell.

Michigan is just 2-6 over their last 8 games vs. Power 5, and I'm not sold on this offense, which has questions on the offensive line, and have to go up against one of the better defensive lines from the PAC 12.  This is a team that every year struggles to score TD's in the red zone (1-3 TD's LW), and they relied on 69, 74, and 76 yard TD's against Western Michigan.  Those type of plays just don't come against Washington's defenses, and now Michigan has to do without their most explosive receiver Ronnie Bell.  

The total has also come down in this game as 15mph cross Stadium winds will be a factor making the points just that much more valuable and the 5-6 point move giving us that much more line value. 

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