Ohio State +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Clemson is 4-0 SU and ATS vs. Ohio State, but this spread move is a big one as this was 2.5 last year.  I don’t believe either team is as good as last year when comparing the #’s both teams have smaller YPP differentials than a year ago.  Ohio State was +3.1 YPP, and Clemson was +3.5, but this year they come in at +2.1 (Clemson) and +1.8 respectfully.  Ohio State was the better team a year ago, and I think they have to be focused for this game. I think there is some value in the number based on how the teams played in their conference championships.  Clemson dominated Notre Dame with their defensive guys returning, while Ohio State just got by a Northwestern team, but Ohio State was playing without a ton of guys specifically on offense and will get most of them back if not all.

I think Ohio State can have success moving the ball through the air here, and I trust Justin Fields to make the decisions necessary to score points and put his team in position to win the game.  Clemson’s secondary is their weakness.  They really haven’t had to play any prolific passing games all year other than Notre Dame, and Ian Book had a very good game in the first match -up, but Ian Book really does not have the skill guys at his disposal that Justin Fields has.  Book in the first game rushed for 67 yards,  Miami’s D’Eriq King rushed for 84, Virginia’s QB Brennan Armstrong rushed for 89, and Clemson did not have to face North Carolina’s offense.  I think Ohio State has a chance to get their revenge in this game, and it will be on the back of Justin Fields.


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