Miami +1 3.3% play
A couple things that I feel is actually giving us value in the number with Miami here. You have the story line of Mike Gundy going 9-5 straight up and ATS in bowl games, while you have Miami 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 bowl games. I believe that shades the number in favor of Miami. Add in the way these two teams finished the season as Oklahoma State, who had been playing really poorly blasted a bad Baylor team, while Miami got crushed by a very good North Carolina team. Baylor was playing without a ton of their players, and Miami was playing without two of their best defensive lineman who opted out before that game They’ll be without Roche and Phillips again here, but at least Manny Diaz has had some time to coach up the replacements, and he’s going up against an offense that just is not nearly as elite as North Carolina’s.
The QB match up here favors Miami, and I love that D’eriq King announced he’s taking advantage of the COVID year and coming back for another year of eligibility. King is a great leader stating, “We’re trying to forget about that (bad loss to UNC)…That last game, wasn’t us, so we’re tyring to go out there and prove a point.” In past years it was clear Miami had quit and the bowl game just didn’t mean much, but I think with King coming back this match up means a lot for the culture of the team. ON the flip side Spencer Sanders who has thrown 19 INT in 19 career games. He has been far less impressive on the road as this game is being played in Orland Florida.
Oklahoma State has a top defense they rank on average 31.75 in YPP defense, rushing defense, QB rating allowed, and success rate. However, they struggled against the only two mobile QB’s they faced in Brock Purdy, and Max Duggan who combined for 3 rushing TD’s, and 31 carries for 142 yards. King is obviously a much more gifted runner than those two. Miami also has been able to score points averaging 29.5 ppg against defenses that rank top 56 on average in the previous mentioned defensive categories.
Defensively Miami has not been Miami mainly because they are running a different offense with speed, but worth noting that they are playing an offense that’s not elite. Oklahoma State is not top 60 in any offensive category and when you average out their success rate, rushing ypc, and QB Rating they average 71.6. Identical to a Virginia team they played and held to 14 points. On average when facing a team ranking 60th or worst they allowed in 5 games 15.8 ppg, and only one time did they allow more than 14 points. I think Miami’s defense will have a good game, and I think King’s leadership and legs, and arm will be the difference that gets Miami the win.
