Lafayette / UTSA Under 56.5 3.3% play

We have everything we want in an under as we have 2 teams that are primarily run first teams.  ULL runs the ball 56.55% of the time while UTSA runs it at 54.74% of the time.  Both teams do not turn the ball over ranking 13^th and 14^th in TO margin and they both play excellent special teams ranking 29^th and 20^th respectfully.  Both teams want to establish the run first, and I like that UTSA’s defense is a bit under the radar here ranking 55^th in success rate defense.  The average points scored in lafayettes games against top 65 success rate defenses was 47.33, and one game was in OT. 

UTSA is interesting as they have played 4 top 50 YPP defenses, and scored 20, 13, 16, and 3 points total.  All 4 of those defenses are not as good statistically as Lafayette, as Lafayette ranks 14^th, and got their against an opponent ranking 50^th in ypp defense.  Lafayette’s strength is their pass defense, but they are able to hold their own in run defense.  UTSA has also played 5 games against teams who run the ball first and rank top 60, 3 of those 5 rank top 32, and all 5 of those games went well under the total.  The average total in those 5 games was 55.8, and the average total points was 43.6.  The highest total was 68 against North Texas who has a very bad defense, and the game still went under by 2 points.

Lafayette played 3 really poor defenses in their last 4 games.  Teams ranking 112^th, 88^th, and 109^th in success rate defense, which I think inflates this total a bit here.  UTSA, same thing in two of their last 3 games they played defenses ranked 125^th, and 100^th, and it led to a lot of points, which again I don’t think happens in this game.  With all that said it’s bowl season and sometimes anything can happen.  UTSA is without their head coach here who has covid so I can’t feel confident in playing UTSA +14, although it is corelated to my under play.

Where to find Freddy?