TCU +3 3.3% PLAY 

65% of the tickets her eon West Virginia, and I just don’t get it, but I’ll take the line value at +3.  The spread makes a lot of sense here when you consider not a lot separates these two teams from a statistical perspective they are very much alike, but TCU has faced the more difficult schedule with Oklahoma and Iowa State, while West Virginia has Oklahoma State on their schedule they lost that game by 2 TD’s.

Max Duggan, the TCU QB adds a threat with his legs that WV QB Doege doesn’t, which gives TCU an edge.  TCU also picked Doege off 3 times last year in their loss by 3 points.  I think TCU will have more success running the ball here as they doubled West Virginia’s yardage last year and while it looks like West Virginia is stout against he run ranking 29th in ypc, and 33rd in EPA run defense, they have faced an opponent YPC offense ranking on average 73.6, and an opponent EPA run offense ranking 76th.  West Virginia’s overall success rate defense which ranks 4th has come against an average offensive success rate offense ranking 82nd, out of 121 teams.  They have had an easy schedule, and while it’s not like TCU’s offense is going to blow them away here, but TCU comes into the game quietly with 10 sacks in their last 2 games and rank 5th in success rate defense and that has come against an average 61st ranked success rate offense. 

I like TCU’s momentum here, and they’ll try to revenge last years 3 point loss at home which knocked them out of a bowl game.


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