Purdue +3 3.3% play

Purdue +3 3.3% play

Nearly 67% of the money coming in on Northwestern here and the line is at 3, and I feel there is value on the home dog here.  I really think these two teams are pretty even as Purdue has the better offense, and Northwestern the better defense, and we saw in their common opponent Iowa where Purdue won by 4, and Northwestern won by 1, but had to do so after they were down 17-0 with 3 forced turnovers in the second half.  There are more red flags with this Northwestern team, as they were outgained 125 yard by Nebraska last week.  Nebraska just shot themselves in the foot too many times, after 8 trips into Northwestern territory coming up with only 13 points in the game.  Purdue is a bit of a different style offense and I think they could have some success here with their passing game.  Rondale Moore is upgraded to questionable and I believe there is a 70% chance he plays, but even if he doesn’t I feel good with Purdue at +3 with Northwestern also having Wisconsin up on deck, and Purdue having the extra week to rest up as their game was canceled.

The weather also doesn’t look good with rain and 15mph winds, but looking at the stats I see that favoring Purdue more than Northwestern.  Both teams like to run over 60% of the time on the young season.  Purdue ranks 52nd in EPA rushing while facing an average 33rd ranked defense, and Northwestern ranks 77th facing a 73rd ranked epa run defense.  Defensively Purdue is better from an EPA perspective ranking 57th, against a 48.5 offense, while Northwestern ranks 93rd, but they have faced good EPA rushing offenses on average ranking 26th.


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