Michigan State +7 2.2% play

Michigan State +7 2.2% / 0.5% on ML +235

Indiana is the #10 team in the country and will have every bit of Michigan State’s focus for the battle of the Old Brass Spitoon.  Indiana has a massive look ahead game to Ohio State next week, but that’s just a bonus here.  Indiana is averaging 37 points per game on offense, but that’s super fraudulent as they rank 98^th in success rate offense, 113^th in yards per carry, 99^th in yards per play, and they convert only 35.7% of their third downs.  They have done it by being 3^rd in the nation in TO Margin.  Now Michigan State has had major issues turning the ball over so that’s why this is a 2% play.  I do believe if they cover this spread and play a clean game they can win the game outright.

From a statistical perspective there is no way for Indiana to make a case to be laying 7 points on the road here.  Michigan State’s offenses is no better ranking 10st in ypp offense, and 110^th in success rate offense, but they have faced a tougher schedule of defenses thus far.  Michigan State’s defense also has better numbers ranking 25^th in success rate defense.  Overall the two teams are pretty even with TO margin being the key difference.  I think Michigan State at home can hang in the game and possibly steal it like they stole one against Michigan.