Michigan State +7 2.2% play

Michigan State +7 2.2% / 0.5% on ML +235

Indiana is the #10 team in the country and will have every bit of Michigan State’s focus for the battle of the Old Brass Spitoon.  Indiana has a massive look ahead game to Ohio State next week, but that’s just a bonus here.  Indiana is averaging 37 points per game on offense, but that’s super fraudulent as they rank 98th in success rate offense, 113th in yards per carry, 99th in yards per play, and they convert only 35.7% of their third downs.  They have done it by being 3rd in the nation in TO Margin.  Now Michigan State has had major issues turning the ball over so that’s why this is a 2% play.  I do believe if they cover this spread and play a clean game they can win the game outright.

From a statistical perspective there is no way for Indiana to make a case to be laying 7 points on the road here.  Michigan State’s offenses is no better ranking 10st in ypp offense, and 110th in success rate offense, but they have faced a tougher schedule of defenses thus far.  Michigan State’s defense also has better numbers ranking 25th in success rate defense.  Overall the two teams are pretty even with TO margin being the key difference.  I think Michigan State at home can hang in the game and possibly steal it like they stole one against Michigan.

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