Nebraska +3.5 3.3% play

Northwestern was trailing 17-0 in the first half against Iowa before some turnovers broke their way and they came back to win by 1 point.  Two of those 3 interceptions that Iowa threw were on tipped passes, and you could say Northwestern was actually very lucky to win.  On the flip side Nebraska did not have to play last week due to COVID because Wisconsin had an outbreak so they’ve had an extra week to rest up, and the health of their two QB’s looks good for this match-up.  Pat Fitzgerald and Scott Frost are two of my favorite coaches in this conference, and I trust Fitzgerald when he’s a dog not a favorite.  Frost has to prove it in this conference still, but I do trust him overall to play in close games.

In fact, the last three years this game has been decided by a total of 13 points.  This year there is no crowd at Northwestern due to the state’s restrictions, and that should benefit Nebraska’s defense.  Nebraska had the toughest task week 1 facing Ohio State, and for all the talk about offenses in week 1, Northwestern got all the hype, but against Ohio State, Nebraska had a 55.6% success rate, which ranks #2 in the nation.  Unfortunately for them they gave up 59.6% and had two turnovers and 8 penalties.  Going up against Northwestern’s offense should be an easier task even if they are improved.  I think Nebraska could win this game outright if they can play a clean game.