Michigan -3.5 2.2%

Buy low opportunity on Michigan here coming off a loss at home as a three TD favorite.  Michigan still has more talent and should be motivated to beat an Indiana team that is lucky to be 2-0.  Michigan under Harbough following a loss when they play the next week are 8-1, and the 1 loss was to Ohio State.  I get Indiana is 2-0, but they haven’t been impressive doing it. They were lucky against Penn State, they put up just 211 yards in the win over Penn State, and most of them came after 58 minutes of regulation.  They put up just 350 total yards against Rutgers, with 2.7 yards per carry.  What have we seen from Indiana to think they are going to break the streak against Michigan, who has more talent.  Michigan has beaten Indiana 39 out of the last 40 times.  I’d like Indiana more if Michigan did not lose last week.

The loss against Michigan State is inexcusable, but it’s giving us line value this week.  I felt the officials repeatedly called some pass interferences against Don Brown’s aggressive style of defense, which changed the first couple of drives in that game.  Do we get the same this week?  I think it’s a huge key in the game and Indiana’s QB Penix is not an accurate passer, but he’s going to have to hit some deep throws for Indiana to win this game, and I don’t think he can do it.  Indiana’s rushing game has not taken off they rank 100th in line yards, and struggle with pressure, which Michigan likes to bring.  They are only converting 26% on third down, and have largely benefited from a +4 TO margin on the season while Michigan has not turned the ball over yet.

Michigan’s offense should click a bit here as Indiana is under sized up front.  Penn State rushed for 250 yards 4.81 yards per carry, and I believe Michigan should have similar success here, and Milton at QB adds another dynamic to the rush game that Indiana has not seen.  I expect Milton to also hit some big plays in the play action, and expect Michigan to win this game.

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