Georgia -3 -115 5.5% NCAAF POD
Florida is a public dog here, and I think Georgia is the better side especially when you consider Kirby Smart or Kirby Smart led defenses has held Dan Mullen offense’s in 12 meetings to under 20 points every single time. This Georgia defense is arguably one of the better defenses that Smart has had and they should be able to give Florida’s offense fits. Florida’s offense has been great, but they have largely benefited from 57% of their passing yards coming after contact, and that just won’t happen against a Georgia defense that is fundamentally sound. Florida also lacks the big play vertical receivers that hurt Georgia when they faced Alabama. Mullen does like to take a deep shot early in games, but I have confidence in the talent on the Georgia’s defense.
Offensively Georgia has looked bad, but I think that gives us value here, because they go up against a Florida defense that ranks 94th in rushing EPA defense, and if Georgia can run the ball they are a dangerous offense. Stetson Bennett has struggled since the second half vs. Alabama, but I think he gets right here, and with George Pickens likely to play at WR that is a huge get back.
My original lean here was Florida at +6 or more, but with what happened last week with Florida’s defense looking better, and Georgia holding onto a 14-3 win against Kentucky suddenly we have 3.5 and even 3’s in the market right now. Value to Georgia when we dig deeper and see that Missouri was playing without 3 starting offensive lineman in the game. I think we should see some big plays out of Georgia’s passing game off play action after they establish the run. Also see some weather 16mph winds and 50% chance of rain which would negatively impact Florida more than Georgia.
