Iowa State -13.5 -115 3% play

Buy the half point.  This one is +100 or -105 everywhere, and may go down to 13.5 at some point.

We faded Baylor last week with TCU, and it was an easy win as TCU dominated throughout before letting Baylor creep back late when the game was already within hand.  I think that again hides just how bad Baylor is, and they have had a couple games like that, but this is another step up in competition for Baylor facing Iowa State, the first team that has a top 50 rushing success rate.  I think Iowa State’s offense will put up 30+ points here.  Yes, Baylor’s defense has looked like it has not skipped a beat ranking 14th in success rate defense, but a closer looks reveals that they have not faced a single team ranking top 50 out of 103 teams in success rate, while Iowa State sports a balanced attack and ranks 24th. 

As bad as Baylor’s offense has looked, I would not look for it to be any better on the road against Iowa State.  Baylor has struggled to protect the QB, and Iowa State has been able to get to the QB ranking 3rd in the Big 12 in sacks with 18.  I look for Iowa State’s defense to have their best defensive performance this week against Baylor team that will finally look as bad as I think they are.  When you rank 98th out of 103 teams in success rate with just 30% of your plays grading successfully and you are on the road going up against Iowa State which ranks 17th in success rate defense you are going to have problems moving the ball. 

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