Auburn +120 3% play
LSU is a road favorite? I’m puzzled by this one, I get that Auburn could easily be 0-5, but they have found ways to win. This is the same LSU team that gave up 45 points to Missouri and 44 to Miss State. Last week in their big win against South Carolina, a team that Auburn lost to they gave up over 9 yards per carry to South Carolina’s RB’s, and over 10 yards per pass attempt to Collin Hill. The defense is still not fixed, but LSU was fortunate as South Carolina missed 3 field goals, gave up a pick six, and kickoff return TD. Flip side, Auburn gave up 3 turnovers from Bo Nix on the road against South Carolina and lost 30-22, so I think that why you may see LSU as a favorite here.
LSU also starting a freshman here in TJ Finley making his first road start after taking over for Brennan last week. He looked good, but it was mostly dink and dunk. I expect a more challenging day for him on the road at Auburn who is allowing some fans into the building. Auburn is 8-2 ATS as a home dog under Malzahn. They are also 30-0 since 2016 when they score 28 or more points, and they are 26-2 when they run for 200+ yards, which they have done in each of their last 3 games. Tank Bigbsy is really coming on and Bo Nix is just a different QB at home. LSU ranks 67th in EPA run defense and that has come against teams ranked 73, 71, 82nd, and 39th in EPA run offense out of 101 teams. LSU just lost so much off last year’s Championship squad, and the coaching is just not the same quality. I expect Auburn to win this game outright. If you want to wait for a possible +3 to show up Saturday it may pop, but I don’t think you’ll need it.
