Georgia +5.5 3.3% play
I really like what I saw from Georgia last week. There offensive numbers are not overly impressive, but you have to take into consideration the fact that the first half against Arkansas they had a different QB, that was clueless, and the second half against Auburn they took their foot off the gas. Georgia with Stetson Bennett who has a lot of confidence right now, and knows this offense and we have shown his ability to play with tempo when Georgia wants him to could give Alabama some issues. From a statistical perspective Alabama which ranks 44th vs the run, and 68th vs. the pass from an EPA perspective (out of 75 teams) is the worst defense Georgia has faced. Strength of schedule is a major reason why as Alabama has faced some very good offenses, but the defenses they have faced are very bad.
Alabama's offense is clicking on all cylinders righ tnow ranking 6th in EPA rush, and 1st in EPA pass, but the average defenses are 55th, and 72nd, and there is some noise in those statistics as in 2 of those 3 games Alabama really could not get the runing game going rushing for just 3.43ypc vs. Missouri and A&M. Luckily both A&M and Missouri can't stop the pass ranking 70th and 71st out of 75 teams. Georgia ranks 3rd, and they've been tested facing an average EPA passing offense ranking 35th. They have allowed just 5.2 yards per attempt, 3TD and 5 INT's. Guarantano threw 2 TD's in the first half last week that were absolutely perfec throws, and that's what it will take. Now Alabama certainly has elite WR's, and Mac Jones thus far has proven he's worthy QB, but it's worth noting that he has not started a game vs. an elite defense. The best defense he has faced was Auburn's 33rd ranked pass defense last year and while he had 4 passing TD's he also had 2 INT's and they lost 45-48.
