Miss State +5 5.5% NCAAF POD
Miss State outgained Kentucky by over 100 yards, but threw 6 interceptions, which I think gives us some value on the home dog here. On the other hand, Texas A&M just got off back to back games against Alabama and Florida, and upset Florida last week. I think this is a huge let down spot for an A&M team that has already had to deal with a lot. I honestly think this is a horrible spot for the Aggies as they are now down another receiver as Caleb Chapman was lost for the season after a terrific day against Florida. Now A&M has one less weapon after they already had issues with WR’s opting out, and I just don’t trust Kellen Mond on the road against a good defense.
Miss State ranks 9th in EPA rush defense, and 28th vs. the pass, which is far better than A&M has seen this year. Both Alabama and Florida surprisingly have had defensive issues in their games. Miss State has been very strong on that side of the ball, and Mond has not been good in his career on the road posting 16 TD’s and 15 interceptions, while at home he has a 41 TD to 8 INT’s. Now he’s down a weapon, and you’d like to think he can rely on Spiller, but Miss State has been very strong against the run.
A&M has also had turnover issues they are -15 TO margin since 2018 season when Jimbo took over. Miss State has had turnover issues in their last few games, but I think that is due to change here, and if they can win the TO battle they could pull the outright upset.
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