UCF -3 2.2%

This could be a square play, but UCF has dominated this series, and we are getting line value, because they are coming off a loss as a huge favorite against Tulsa.  Tulsa has had UCF’s number, while Memphis has not losing 13 straight games by an average 8 points per game.  This is also the worst defense form a success rate allowed perspective that UCF has faced so far as Memphis ranks 61st out of 74 teams in success rate defense, and their biggest struggles have been against the pass.  I think Dillon Gabriel could have a big day in this game.

While Memphis is arguably the worst defense UCF has faced, UCF is the best defense Memphis has faced as they are much more balanced team and rank 32nd in success defense, while Memphis has faced two teams ranking 44th and 46th.

Here are some of the other reasons I think we have line value.  SMU led Memphis 24-3 in their last game before taking their foot off the gas and holding on 30-27, while UCF had an 18 point lead that they blew thanks to 3 turnovers and 18 penalties.  UCF is +7 TO margin on the year, and with the bye, I like the team with more stability compared to Memphis, with the first year head coach to do better in this spot.  Also worth noting that Dillon Gabriel has more experienced targets, while White lost 2 of his top 3 targets from a year ago. 

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