Auburn / South Carolina Over 51.5 1.1% play
SEC Defense? Well, I guess we will find out, but I see value in the over here. Auburn ranks 40th in success rate defense out of 75 teams, and that came against some bad offenses, while South Carolina ranks 68th, and both are outside the top 50 of 75 teams in EPA pass defense, which is a measurement of the combination of success rate and explosiveness. Auburn’s linebackers have had cluster injuries, and I think South Carolina, a team under Mike Bobo have proven with QB Collin Hill that they can put some points up on the board, and I think they can take advantage of Auburn’s 63rd ranked EPA pass defense in this one.
Auburn’s offense has yet to show what it’s capable of, and we saw a sneak peak last week with the running game that got going against Arkansas. Bo Nix, still a capable QB, and finally gets to go up against South Carolina’s defense that ranks 68th in success rate allowed on defense. He’s had to go up against two top 10 pass defenses, and here going up against 51st, and I think this Auburn offense will put up some points.
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