Houston +5 3.3% play

Houston turned the ball over 5 times and were negative in TO margin in their first game and won by 18 points and covered the spread.  Just so you understand how rare that is, Favorites who were -5 TO margin were 1-90 ATS.  I expect Houston to take better care of the ball, Tulane’s defensive line is extremely athletic and talented ranking 6th in sack.  I think the Houston offense will be better at taking care of the ball in this game at home.

BYU has short rest, and traveling, while Houston has 2 extra days of prep, and meanwhile they have much more film to work through to scheme up a game plan as BYU has played 4 games, while Houston has only played one.  There are many things that Houston can do and change, and it makes it much more difficult for BYU’s coaching staff to prepare a game plan in a short week.

BYU is getting the majority of the tickets and money, and that should be no shock when you consider the numbers they have put up.  Zach Wilson has been spectacular and getting touted for the Heisman, but he’s faced an average pass defense ranked 44th out of 75 teams.  Houston, with just one game rank #1 in yards per play defense, and that came against a pretty good Tulane offense that ranked 10th in ypc offense, and Houston really shut Tulane’s offense down in that game holding them to under 3 yards per carry.


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