Georgia -12 2.2% play 

61% of the tickets are coming in on Tennessee, as they have the longest winning streak in the SEC with 8 straight wins.  I’m just not buying into the hype right now as Tennessee has faced two teams that might not get to a bowl game in South Carolina and Missouri, and Tennessee at times showed vulnerabilities to both of those teams.  I also think we saw Georgia with Stetson Bennett at QB go a little faster with their tempo, which is not something we have seen before with Kirby Smart.  If that continues I feel more comfortable laying double digits with the lower total.

Honestly, this is still a fade against Guarantano at QB, they were just 1-12 on third down at South Carolina, a defense that just got shredded against Florida.  Guarantano against good defenses has not been productive, and although he has played two clean games, I think Georgia will be able to stop the run forcing this game into the hands of Guarantano, which I don’t think will be a good thing against this top 3 defense of Georgia.

There will be talk about this being a sandwich game for Georgia, with Alabama on deck, but the fact of the matter is this game is much more important as a divisional game.  There is no way Georgia wants to be down a game to Tennessee, and give them confidence.  We are clearly getting value in the number when you factor in the last two seasons Georgia was 24 point favorite on the road, and a 30.5 point favorite at home making them a 27 point favorite on a neutral.  Georgia will be allowing 20,000 fans into the building here, and you mean to tell me that Tennessee is 17-18 points better or Georgia 17-18 points worse?  Last I saw Georgia has been getting top 5 recruiting classes.


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