It’s easy to say that Oklahoma will just rebound after the Kansas State collapse, but we did see this just last year as Oklahoma went 1-4 ATS to close the season with an average margin of loss of 9.5 ppg, and on the flip side Kansas State went on to cover 3 of their final 4 games. Iowa State on the other hand has had Oklahoma’s number covering the last 4 meetings including one outright upset. Matt Campbell’s defense is designed to defend in the Big 12, and teams like Oklahoma, which is the reason they have done so well ATS. This is the lowest spread by far over the past 4 years, which gave me pause for concern as the last 4 meetings have had spreads of 21, 31, 18.5, and 14, but the actual finals in all 4 of those games have been 14, 7, 10, and 1.
Oklahoma has an inexperienced QB in Spencer Rattler compared to previous season where they had experienced veteran transfers in Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts. Rattler may be the most talented of them all, but he’s still a red-shirt freshman who didn’t even play a full high school season his senior year. He’ll now go into this game against a 3-3-5 defense, which we know give QB’s issues the first time they see it, and Iowa State’s 3 lineman can actually get pressure on QB’s, while Oklahoma’s offensive line has shown vulnerabilities. Iowa State through 2 games are in the top 10 in sack %.
I think Brock Purdy has his best game here, against an Oklahoma defense, which really does not look any better, and that was against a Kansas State team missing 6 or 7 starters. I think Purdy getting Kolar back at TE against TCU was a huge deal, and coming back home for a night game where they will be allowing some fans will be a huge deal for this team. The reason this is only a free pick is the line has been much larger in the past and we missed 7.5 and 8.5 earlier in the week, which would have made this a larger play.
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