West Virginia +120 3% play 

Baylor beat a bad Kansas team, and it was a misleading final of 47-14, as Baylor was only +24 yards but benefited from two kick return touchdowns and a safety.  Meanwhile West Virginia lost by 14 points to Oklahoma State, but were even in yardage.  The defense was impressive, and Neal Brown is a great coach ATS as an underdog.  Brown was 9-4 ATS as a dog at Troy with many covers against Power 5 opponents over his time there, and two outright upsets against LSU and Nebraska in 2017 & 2018.

Baylor, has gone through a complete overhaul on offense, defense, coaching staff, offensive and defensive systems.  This was an 11 win team, and they bring back their QB, but Charlie Brewer did not look good and this Baylor offense that put up 47 points actually only had 37.6% success rate against a Kansas defense that allowed Coastal Carolina to have a 48.2% success rate.  Small sample, but the fact that they lost so much from last year’s team, and West Virginia should be improved this year.  West Virginia only lost by 3 at Baylor a year ago.  I think the wrong team is favored here and it makes me feel better that Baylor at -2.5 is getting all the tickets and money. 


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