FSU / MIAMI UNDER 54 2.2% PLAY
Louisville’s defense is not as good as Florida State’s which returns 10 starters, and really needs the defense to step up here. This is an instate rivalry game that is HUGE to recruiting. I expect a lower scoring game, and I believe this total is inflated about 6 points, because of what Miami has done offensively, and their defense struggled just last week against an elite Louisville offense leading to an inflated total. Florida State’s offense is not very good, and they are breaking in a new offense under Mike Norvell who won’t be at the game due to COVID. For all the points Miami has put up they rank 33rd in offensive success rate out of 46 teams. Miami really struggled on 1st and 2nd downs in both games, and King bailed them out on third and longs. I believe Florida State will have a better answer for that in this game.
Both of these offensive lines are bad, and among the worst in the P5. Miami has covered it up in the early going, because of D’Eriq King, but if you take away the big plays from this Miami offense, they are suddenly not that explosive. Florida State has had two weeks to prepare for King, they faced Georgia Tech’s Simms in game 1, who plays a similar style to King. They will also get All-ACC S Hamsah Nasirildeen back for this game, which should help Florida State big time. Florida State’s offense scored just 13 points against Georgia Tech, a Tech defense that just got shredded by UCF a week ago, and they scored just 10 points a season ago while getting sacked 9 times.
