Arkansas State +13 2.2% Play

This line opened up at +10 and has steamed to +13, and I'm going to fade that 3 point line move and come in on the dog.  If you fade steam moves of 2+ points in week 1 over the last 3 years, you would go 58% ATS, 69-50!  We are getting line value in the number. 

Also, Kanasas State's 0 spring practices, breaking in a completely new offensive line, and their strategy to hold onto the ball and slow the game down (124th in plays per game last year), should lead to a shortened game, making the 13 points more valuable.  The total has also dropped 4 points from 58.5 now down to 54.5.

Arkansas State played last week, they also had 11 spring practices, and covered against a much better Memphis team a week ago.  They were driving to cut the game to 6 points at the end of the game, but covered the spread despite having 3 turnovers.  Bonner/Hatcher combo at QB has worked so far and Blake Anderson seems totally focused on this season, and I could see a potential upset here if Arkansas State can win the turnover battle and get off the field on some third downs. 

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